Vanishing Vanguard: A CSRA Study Finds That Revolutions Have Faced a Leadership Crisis over the Past Two Centuries
A preprint by V.V. Ustyuzhanin, Yu.V. Zinkina, and V.V. Korotayev on the leadership crisis affecting revolutions has been published. The authors conducted the first systematic cross-national analysis of the absence of leadership in revolutionary campaigns from 1791 to 2019. It emerged that the deficit of leadership is real, but it is neither as new nor as absolute as previously thought: only about half of twenty-first-century campaigns lack discernible leadership. Two factors reliably predict the absence of leadership: student participation and human-rights goals. The influence of coalition breadth, nonviolent tactics, and the internet was not confirmed. Thus, leaderless mobilization is determined by who protests and what they demand, rather than by scale, tactics, or technology.
WorldFood Moscow 2026: Who Will Feed the Growing Markets of Asia and Africa?
Grain, Demography, and Food Security amid the Restructuring of Trade Relations
For those seeking a deeper understanding of Big History this volume offers an essential and insightful contribution.
In 2025, Springer published the collective monograph Navigating Complexity in Big History: Exploring Periodization Across Cosmic and Biosocial Dimensions, edited by David J. LePoire, Leonid Grinin, and Andrey Korotayev. This work represents a systematic effort to place the periodization of Big History, a discipline encompassing 13.8 billion years of cosmic, biological, and social evolution, on a rigorous quantitative and theoretical footing. Rather than advancing a single definitive framework, the authors present several competing yet complementary models that illuminate the fundamental rhythms of cosmic and terrestrial evolution from distinct but mutually informative perspectives.
A Study on the Factors of Revolutionary Destabilization in Asian and African Countries Using Machine Learning Methods Has Been Published
A team of researchers from the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies of Revolutionary Processes — Ivan Chernomorchenko, Ilya Medvedev, and Andrey Korotayev — has published an article in the journal Cross-Cultural Research (ranked at the List A) titled Towards the Ranking of the Importance of Revolutionary Destabilization Factors in Asian and African Countries Using Machine Learning Methods. The study focuses on identifying the key structural drivers of armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia over the period from 1950 to 2022.
The Demographic Bomb is a Myth: Andrey Korotaev Reveals Real Threats for Russia and Asia
A demographic crisis linked to an excessive influx of people is not a global threat to the planet. On the contrary, most countries face the opposite problem — a rapid decline in population, explained demographer and Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Studies at HSE University, Andrey Korotaev. In an interview with NewsInfo, he analyzed current forecasts suggesting that humanity has allegedly exceeded the permissible limits of survivability.
Professor Andrey Korotaev on Gen Z protests, demography, technological challenges, and social transformations in Africa in an interview for the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
In an interview for the "Sandbox" project, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis at the Faculty of Social Sciences of HSE University Andrey Korotaev discusses Gen Z protests, manifestations of singularity, Middle Eastern and African challenges, artificial intelligence challenges, and the "infinite" population of the Earth. The interview was conducted by HSE student Denis Sadov.
Vadim Ustyuzhanin on New Alcohol Trade Restrictions
The researcher at the Center for Stability and Risks Analysis (CSRA) commented to radio station "Govorit Moskva" on the ban on alcohol sales on Sundays and public holidays, which will come into force on March 1, 2026, in the Altai Republic.
Vadim Ustyuzhanin is the laureate of the Student Research Paper Competition held by HSE University!
A researcher at the CSRA is the laureate the Student Research Paper Competition on economics. Vadim Ustyuzhanin's paper Parenthood Penalty in Russia: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size, assesses the causal effect of childbirth on maternal employment in Russia, often referred to as the ‘motherhood penalty’.
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CSRA and Ethiopia's The Policy Studies Institute signed a memorandum of understanding
The Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and The Policy Studies Institute have signed a memorandum establishing cooperation in the field of social sciences. This agreement formalised the willingness of both parties to establish a strategic partnership aimed at developing joint initiatives in areas such as federations and federalism, comparative analysis of public policy practices, and the socio-economic policies of states.
