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Regular version of the site

Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis

Publications
Book
HISTORY & MATHEMATICS. HISTORICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DYNAMICS: FACTORS, CYCLES, AND TRENDS

Edited by: L. E. Grinin, A. Korotayev.

Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House, 2022.

Article
Social Macroevolution and Changes in the Human Value Systems. How has Modernization Affected Human Values?

Zinkina J., Ustyuzhanin V., Shulgin S.

Social Evolution & History. 2022. Vol. 21. No. 2. P. 91-105.

Book chapter
Global Echo of the Arab Spring

Korotayev A., Shishkina A., Khokhlova A.

In bk.: Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change. Springer, 2022. P. 813-849.

Working paper
Revolutions and democracy. Can democracies stop violence?

Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A.

social sciences & humanities. SAGE advance, 2022

About the Centre

The main activity of the Centre is systemic monitoring and analysis of dynamics of socio-political transformation of specific countries and regions, forecasting their social and political development and consecutive development of recommendations on overcoming and avoiding socio-political instability. 


Yevgeny Ivanov and Ashish Singh on the prospects of using national currencies

Can Russia and India abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade?

Illustration for news: The article on the repatriation of Syrian Circassians to the North Caucasus has been published in Europe-Asia Studies journal

The article on the repatriation of Syrian Circassians to the North Caucasus has been published in Europe-Asia Studies journal

An electronic version of the article "A Troubled Return to the Homeland: Syrian Circassians in Southern Russia" has been published on the Europe-Asia Studies journal website. The article covers issues related to the migration of Syrian Circassians (Adyghe) to the Russian regions of the North Caucasus. With the outbreak of conflict in Syria, hundreds of Syrian Circassians decided to move to the Caucasus, where their ancestors lived. Since the Caucasus is perceived by the Syrian Circassians as their historical homeland, they believe that this is not just migration, but repatriation. However, the institutionalization of repatriation took a long time, since there was a risk that supporters of Daesh (the terrorist organization is banned in the Russian Federation) could ifiltrate to Russia.

The section 'Library of the Center' is on the CSRA page now!

At the moment, the section presents books and monographs published with the participation of CISR researchers.

Illustration for news: The Database of Revolutionary Events of the 21st century published on the Centre's website

The Database of Revolutionary Events of the 21st century published on the Centre's website

The database provides a description of the revolutionary events of the 21st century including various characteristics: chronological, geographical, type of tactics of the protesters, purpose and degree of success. Also, based on the presented Database, the 'Atlas of Instability' has been made for the Afroasian (Afrasian) macrozone and for African states located to the South of the Sahel. It presents the risks of armed or non-violent revolutionary episodes for some countries from selected regions in long-term dynamics under three different scenarios - positive, inertial and negative.

The database is prepared as the part of the "Quantitative analysis and forecasting of the risks of socio-political destabilization in the countries of the Afroasian macrozone of instability" project under the support of the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 18-18-00254-P).

Yevgeny Ivanov performed as a discussant at the online section "Political Science", at the conference "Alliance of Social Sciences"

Students from the HSE University, St. Petersburg State University and other universities took part in the section. The presentations covered a wide range of topics, from identity and political representation to the political implications of environmental protests. Yevgeny Ivanov noted the high level of reports given there.

The article 'Perceptions of Russia's Return to Africa: Perspectives from West Africa' is published

The South African Journal of International Relations (SAJIA) has published an article by laboratory scholars Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina and Yakov Liokumovich entitled 'Perceptions of Russia's 'return' to Africa: Views from West Africa'. The article is included into the special issue covering the Russia's 'return' to Africa.

The book “New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region. A comparative Perspective" is published

The Springer has published a new book edited by laboratory staff members Andrey Korotaev and Leonid Issaev, “New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region. A comparative Perspective". The book was written within the framework of a five-year project of the Russian Science Foundation "Quantitative analysis and forecasting of the risks of socio-political destabilization in the countries of the Afroasian macrozone of instability" and offers a comparative look at the new wave of revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa.

Yevgeny Ivanov took part in the conference on the values of the youth of Central Asia

Yevgeny Ivanov, the junior researcher of the Lab, took part in the international scientific conference "Transformation of the values and norms of youth", which was held with the support of the Agency for Youth Affairs of Uzbekistan. Among the speakers there were researchers from Uzbekistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, France, and Brazil. Yevgeny Ivanov presented his report “Youth Values and Stability in Central Asia”, focusing on how changing values are associated with the processes of socio-political destabilization in the region.

Andrey V. Korotaev's presentation at the conference Humanities vs Sciences

Andrey Korotaev, head of the Laboratory, took part in the conference "Humanities vs Sciences & the Knowledge Accelerating in Modern World: Parallels and Interaction", organized by MIPT-Phystech.

Information for students! Supervisors and the framework topics of term papers and theses.

Dear students of bachelor's and master's programs!If you are interested in the research fields our Laboratory is engaged in, then you can contact one of the scholars (A.V. Korotaev, L.M. Issaev, A.R. Shishkina and Ye.A. Ivanov ). To do that you should share a research proposal with a potential supervisor. We would like to draw your attention to the fact that the scholars possibilities of being a supervisor are limited.