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Regular version of the site

Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis

Publications
Book
Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region In press

Edited by: L. Issaev, A. Korotayev, J. Besenyő.

Springer, 2024.

Article
Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization

Korotayev A., Andrew Zhdanov, Gleb Krivenko.

Comparative Sociology. 2024. P. 98-126.

Book chapter
Introduction: Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region In press

Issaev L., Korotayev A., Besenyő J.

In bk.: Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region. Springer, 2024.

Working paper
Revolutions and democracy. Can democracies stop violence?

Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A.

social sciences & humanities. SAGE advance, 2022

About the Centre

The main activity of the Centre is systemic monitoring and analysis of dynamics of socio-political transformation of specific countries and regions, forecasting their social and political development and consecutive development of recommendations on overcoming and avoiding socio-political instability. 


Illustration for news: CSRA congratulates on the new year-2023!

CSRA congratulates on the new year-2023!

We wish everyone stability and accurate calculation of risks!

Yevgeny Ivanov spoke at the Social Science Alliance conference organised by the FSN of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

A researcher from the CSRA presented his paper "Army and Politics in the Central Asian States in the Post-Soviet Period". The collapse of the USSR led to the fact that the Central Asian states, as well as other newly formed republics, faced the need to build and modernise their own armed forces to replace the all-Soviet army. In the course of his presentation, Yevgeny Ivanov emphasised that strengthening milirary capacities is an integral part of state building for any polity that claims full sovereignty. Despite the economic difficulties of the transition period, all Central Asian states are were endeavouring to develop their armed forces. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and, according to some reports, Turkmenistan, have increased their defence spending in the 2010s, upgrading their own material and technical base. At the same time, the increased focus on the defence sector is not currently affecting political processes.

Illustration for news: Leonid Issaev, the Deputy Director of the CSRA, took part in discussion about the current situation in Gaza

Leonid Issaev, the Deputy Director of the CSRA, took part in discussion about the current situation in Gaza

Illustration for news: A delegation consisting of Issaev Leonid, Vice Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis , and Prof. Andrei Zakharov of HSE University of Russia visited the Policy Studies Institute (PSI) on October 10, 2023.

A delegation consisting of Issaev Leonid, Vice Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis , and Prof. Andrei Zakharov of HSE University of Russia visited the Policy Studies Institute (PSI) on October 10, 2023.

Illustration for news: CISR director gave an interview to OTR TV-channel about Russian-African relations

CISR director gave an interview to OTR TV-channel about Russian-African relations

Flags of the Russian Federation in raging Africa. We are discussing political crises in the continent and prospects for Russia-Africa partnership. The Ministry of Economic Development says Russia is considering the possibility of building a logistics hub in East Africa. What projects will it help boost? And how Russian citizens can benefit from it ?Director of the Center Andrey Korotaev shared his opinion on these issues

Andrey Korotayev's presentation at the conference of the International Big History Association (IBHA)

The CSRA director's report is entitled "Patterns of complexity growth in the Big History. A preliminary quantitative analysis". In his presentation, Andrey Korotayev talks about recent findings, namely about two patterns of how Big History is getting more complex. The first pattern is a slowdown in cosmic evolutionary development that had being taking place several billion years after the Big Bang. The second is the acceleration of biosocial development, which began on Earth about 4 billion years ago.

The brochure about the Center has been published!

The brochure contains basic information about the CSRA: history of origin, areas of activity, key achievements, publications, information about cooperation with educational programs, geography of expeditions and foreign partners.The brochure is of interest to both the HSE community and a wider audience.

Illustration for news: CSRA took part in the celebration of the FSN's anniversary

CSRA took part in the celebration of the FSN's anniversary

On April 22, the Faculty of Social Sciences of the HSE celebrated its 9th anniversary. The Center for the Study of Stability and Risks became one of the participants in this event. At the site of the Center, one could learn about the history of our unit and its current activities, as well as try Arabic cuisine and participate in a quiz related to the CSRA research interests.

The head of CSRA presented on the Complexity Growth Patterns in Big History studies

Andrey Korotaev presented his report "Complexity Growth Patterns in Big History: Preliminary Results of a Quantitative Analysis" at the webinar "Big History Studies from Russia: Complexity, Crises, Singularities", organized by the Eurasian Center for Megahistorical and Systemic Forecasting (Moscow, Russia) together with the Symbiosis School for Liberal Arts (India) and the Oberlin Big History Movement (OBHM) in Tokyo (Japan).

Scholars of CSRA took part in the plenary session 'Africa in a Changing World'

The session was held on the basis on Yasin (April) Conference organized by HSE University annually.
During the session the speakers talked a lot about the challenges Africa is facing in the 21st century, as well as the opportunities that appear for this continent in a changing geopolitical context. The prospects for cooperation between Russia and African states were discussed in particular.