Research activities

The Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) is the leading research and analytical center of HSE University. It specializes in studying socio-political stability and assessing destabilization risks. CSRA is one of the few centers in Russia offering unique expertise on Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, as well as its own methodologies for analyzing socio-political processes in these regions.

Fundamental Research Areas:

Identifying factors affecting state resilience;

Identifying trends in changes of state resilience;
Developing evidence-based forecasts regarding prospects for changes in state resilience;

Country analysis of Asian and African states that are epicenters of global protest activity.

Applied Expertise
The Centre helps its partners:

Forecast socio-political trends;
Identify threats and opportunities for doing business in Asian and African regions;
Make informed decisions: assess country risks, understand the political context, and choose a safe course of action in new markets.

Current activities of the Centre are focused on system monitoring and analysis of dynamics of socio-political transformation of countries and regions.
The team of the Centre carried out the following research projects:

"The State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the Transformation of the World Order" (Issaev L.M.);
"Mechanisms and Factors of Stability of Socio-Political Systems in the 'Afrasian' Macrozone of Instability" (Korotayev A.V.);
"Analysis and Modeling of Africa's Development in the Context of Russia's Foreign Policy Interests" — RSF (Russian Science Foundation) (Korotayev A.V., Issaev L.M.);
"Forecasting of Risks and Threats to Stability of Socio-Political Systems” (Korotayev A., Issaev L., Zinkina Y., Shishkina A.);
“Mathematical Modeling of Global and Regional Dynamics” (Akaev A., Korotayev A., Malkov S., Issaev L.);
“Monitoring of Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization in Afro-Asiatic Zone of Instability” (Korotayev A., Meshcherina K., Issaev L., Sledzevskiy I., Shishkina A.);
“Analysis of Socio-Demographic Development of Tropical Africa: Searching for Key Factors of Risk and Modified Governing Parameters for Developing Practical Recommendations on Averting Socio-Demographic Collapse” (Zinkina Y., Korotayev A.);
“Modeling the Interaction Between Trending and Cyclic Macrodynamics” (Korotayev A., Grinin L., Malkov S.), “Values and Processes of Destabilization and Cross-Cultural Studies” (Korotayev A., Meshcherina K.).

The team of the Centre is engaged in research on such issues as political globalization, the World-systematic analysis of global political processes, cycles of global hegemony, the influence of civilizational factors on global political processes, generational, informational and cultural factors of global political processes, zones of regional conflicts.
Both quantitative and qualitative, as well as mixed research methods are used in research. The Centre staff organizes expeditions in order to collect original "field materials”.
To date, the Centre staff is implementing projects dedicated to the possibilities and limits of cooperation between Russia and the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, mathematical methods of forecasting world’s and countries’ socio-economic development, as well as cross-cultural studies and phase transitions in history.
The Centre publishes the yearbook "System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks".

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