About the Centre

Originally the Centre was founded as the Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization in 2015 by Andrey Korotayev, a scientist who is famous for his interdisciplinary works. Since then the Centre focuses on studying various typies of socio-political destabilization both on the global and macroregional levels. In particular, a lot of attention is dedicated to the study of the Afrasian zone of instability, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa and Post-Soviet space. The Laboratory’s staff conducts quantitative research using specialized databases as well as qualitative research using unique data collected in “field studies”.

The academic supervisor is the professor, foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences - Askar Akaev. Being a Doctor of Sciences in Physics and Math, Askar Akaev focuses a lot on quantitative analysis methods. In particular, professor Akaev creates prognostic models and develops scenarios of macro processes on global and regional levels. 

The main activity of the Centre is systemic monitoring and analysis of dynamics of socio-political transformation of specific countries and regions, forecasting their social and political development and consecutive development of recommendations on overcoming and avoiding socio-political instability. 

The regular activities of the Centre:

• monitoring of the main tendencies and development of specific countries and regions, as well as global trends; finding factors that stimulate the destabilization of the socio-political situation in selected countries or regions;
• finding risks of instability and their analysis; recognizing governing parameters which can be affected by certain state policies and can be significantly averted;
• development of grounded forecasts considering further trends of socio-political stability for countries and regions (special interest in the countries affected by Arab Spring and certain countries of Central Asia);
• creating the system of forecasting dynamic structural-demographic risks of destabilization;
• forming practical recommendations for countries and regions on avoiding social and political risks, and also on forming and correcting country’s policies in various spheres: demographic, economic, social, migration and so on.