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Regular version of the site

Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis

Publications
Book
Principles and Forms of Sociocultural Organization: Historical Contexts of Interaction

Gleb V. Aleksandrov, Bondarenko D. M., Anna K. Aleksandrova et al.

L.; NY: Anthem Press, 2026.

Article
Economic development and revolutions. A cross-national investigation

Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A.

Conflict Management and Peace Science. 2026. P. 1-23.

Book chapter
Conclusions: Exploring Big History Periodizations Across Cosmic and Biosocial Dimensions with Ideas for Further Research

LePoire D. J., Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A.

In bk.: Navigating Complexity in Big History. Exploring Periodization Across Cosmic and Biosocial Dimensions. Springer, 2025. P. 495-525.

Working paper
Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences

Ustyuzhanin V.

arxiv. Econometrics. Cornell University, 2026

About the Centre

The main activity of the Centre is systemic monitoring and analysis of dynamics of socio-political transformation of specific countries and regions, forecasting their social and political development and consecutive development of recommendations on overcoming and avoiding socio-political instability. 


Illustration for news: Ivan Chernomorchenko Participated in the Russia–Tanzania Business and Investment Forum in Arusha

Ivan Chernomorchenko Participated in the Russia–Tanzania Business and Investment Forum in Arusha

On 15 May 2026, the Russia–Tanzania Business and Investment Forum took place in Arusha, organised at the margins of the third session of the Intergovernmental Russian–Tanzanian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation.

The Demographic Bomb is a Myth: Andrey Korotaev Reveals Real Threats for Russia and Asia

A demographic crisis linked to an excessive influx of people is not a global threat to the planet. On the contrary, most countries face the opposite problem — a rapid decline in population, explained demographer and Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Studies at HSE University, Andrey Korotaev. In an interview with NewsInfo, he analyzed current forecasts suggesting that humanity has allegedly exceeded the permissible limits of survivability.

Illustration for news: Professor Andrey Korotaev on Gen Z protests, demography, technological challenges, and social transformations in Africa in an interview for the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)

Professor Andrey Korotaev on Gen Z protests, demography, technological challenges, and social transformations in Africa in an interview for the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)

In an interview for the "Sandbox" project, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis at the Faculty of Social Sciences of HSE University Andrey Korotaev discusses Gen Z protests, manifestations of singularity, Middle Eastern and African challenges, artificial intelligence challenges, and the "infinite" population of the Earth. The interview was conducted by HSE student Denis Sadov.

Illustration for news: HSE Professor Leonid Issaev Awarded Order in Burkina Faso

HSE Professor Leonid Issaev Awarded Order in Burkina Faso

The state honour was presented for contributions to the development of Russian–Burkinabé relations in culture and education

Vadim Ustyuzhanin on New Alcohol Trade Restrictions

The researcher at the Center for Stability and Risks Analysis (CSRA) commented to radio station "Govorit Moskva" on the ban on alcohol sales on Sundays and public holidays, which will come into force on March 1, 2026, in the Altai Republic.

Illustration for news: Professor Andrey Korotayev Turns 65!

Professor Andrey Korotayev Turns 65!

On February 17, Andrey Korotayev, Director of the Center for Stability and Risks Analysis and Professor at HSE University, celebrated his 65th birthday.

Vadim Ustyuzhanin is the laureate of the Student Research Paper Competition held by HSE University!

A researcher at the CSRA is the laureate the Student Research Paper Competition on economics. Vadim Ustyuzhanin's paper Parenthood Penalty in Russia: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size, assesses the causal effect of childbirth on maternal employment in Russia, often referred to as the ‘motherhood penalty’.

Happy New Year - 2026!

The CSRA team wishes everyone a happy new year 2026! As is tradition, we wish you stability and competent risk assessment! We would also like to thank everyone who has been with us over the past year — our friends from the Faculty of Social Sciences and HSE as a whole, our colleagues and partners from other universities in Russia and around the world. Academia brings people together! Let's stay in touch in the coming year!

Illustration for news: CSRA and Ethiopia's The Policy Studies Institute signed a memorandum of understanding

CSRA and Ethiopia's The Policy Studies Institute signed a memorandum of understanding

The Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and The Policy Studies Institute have signed a memorandum establishing cooperation in the field of social sciences. This agreement formalised the willingness of both parties to establish a strategic partnership aimed at developing joint initiatives in areas such as federations and federalism, comparative analysis of public policy practices, and the socio-economic policies of states.

Yegor Fain successfully defended his thesis in political science!

The Dissertation Council has decided to award CSRA researcher Yegor D. Fain the degree of Candidate of Political Sciences. The CSRA team sincerely congratulates our friend and colleague on this achievement!