System monitoring of global and regional risks (yearbook)

System monitoring of global and regional risks

Managing editors L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotaev, D. A. Bykanova
2020. ISBN 978-5-7057-5915-6 

The focus of this yearbook is the revolutionary processes in the Afroasian macrozone of instability, stretching from the Sahel (that is, African countries located immediately south of the Sahara) through North Africa, the Near and Middle East to post-Soviet Central Asia. On the other hand, in order to understand the regularities of revolutionary processes in this macrozone, it is necessary to clarify the general regularities in the occurrence of revolutionary events. The development of models of revolutionary processes makes it possible to propose forecasts of the risks of revolutionary destabilization both at the global level and in relation to the countries of the Afro-Asiatic macrozone. The issue consists of five sections. In the first section, questions of the theory of revolutionary processes are considered, in the second - the problems of modeling and quantitative analysis of revolutionary and destabilization processes. The third section analyzes the revolutionary processes in the Sahel. The fourth section examines the religious, socio-cultural and communicative factors of destabilization. The final fifth section contains materials for the database "Revolutions and Revolutionary Episodes of the 21st Century".
Monitoring will be helpful not only to specialists but to everyone who is interested in destabilization processes and revolutions, their causes, factors and mechanisms both in the Greater Middle East and in the world as a whole.

System monitoring of global and regional risks

Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V., Meshcherina K.V. (Ed.).
2019. ISBN 978-5-7057-5747-3

This yearbook is the tenth volume of the System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks yearbook prepared within the framework of the HSE Program for Fundamental Research in cooperation with the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Monitoring of global and regional risks is a multifaceted scientific direction, which includes a comprehensive study of economic, political, social, and cultural features of the development of a particular region. On the pages of the Monitoring, questions of the methodology of analysis and modelling of the processes of socio-political destabilization both at the global level and in individual countries of the Afrazian macrozone of instability are considered, the results of quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting of the processes of sociopolitical destabilization are published, the destabilization processes themselves in the Afroasian macrozone of instability are considered at the country and regional level in the context of global development and Russia's national interests.

System monitoring of global and regional risks

Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V., Isaev L.M., Meshcherina K.V. (Ed.).
2017. ISBN 978-5-7057-5181-2

This yearbook is the eighth volume of System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks, prepared as part of the HSE Program for Fundamental Research “The Near and Middle East in the Context of a Global Phase Transition” (headed by Professor A. V. Korotaev). Monitoring of global and regional risks is a multifaceted scientific direction, which includes a comprehensive study of economic, political, social, and cultural features of the development of a particular region.