Публикации

Let X_1, ... ,X_n be i.i.d. sample in R^p with zero mean and the covariance matrix S. The problem of recovering the projector onto the eigenspace of S from these observations naturally arises in many applications. Recent technique from [Koltchinskii and Lounici, 2015b] helps to study the asymptotic distribution of the distance in the Frobenius norm between the true projector P_r on the subspace of the r-th eigenvalue and its empirical counterpart \hat{P}_r in terms of the effective trace of S. This paper offers a bootstrap procedure for building sharp confidence sets for the true projector P_r from the given data. This procedure does not rely on the asymptotic distribution of || P_r - \hat{P}_r ||_2 and its moments, it applies for small or moderate sample size n and large dimension p. The main result states the validity of the proposed procedure for finite samples with an explicit error bound on the error of bootstrap approximation. This bound involves some new sharp results on Gaussian comparison and Gaussian anti-concentration in high dimension. Numeric results confirm a nice performance of the method in realistic examples. 

The paper deals with the specifics of informal entrepreneurial activity in fragile postsocialist environment of Russia. Based on related literature it develops an original typology of entrepreneurs combining the level of informal entrepreneurial activity and motivation. The paper offers an in-depth look into the strategies of local entrepreneurs doing business merely formally vs. informally, and into the performance of their firms before and during the economic crisis in Russia. Empirical enquiry is based on three cases in a longitudinal panel survey conducted by the authors in 2013-2015 in Moscow, on one ‘marginal’, one ‘simpleton’ and one prospective ‘star’ entrepreneurs. The more informally and less growth oriented is a business established at the grassroots level, without using any connection with authorities, the more sustainable and secure is its development. Conversely, those bottom-up entrepreneurs who try to establish a transparent business are facing substantial administrative and fiscal problems. Finally, some evidence and political recommendations are formulated.

Liberalism in Russia is one of the most complex, multifaced and, indeed, controversial phenomena in the history of political thought. Values and practices traditionally associated with Western liberalism—such as individual freedom, property rights, or the rule of law—have often emerged ambiguously in the Russian historical experience through different dimensions and combinations. Economic and political liberalism have often appeared disjointed, and liberal projects have been shaped by local circumstances, evolved in response to secular challenges and developed within often rapidly-changing institutional and international settings.

This third volume of the Reset DOC “Russia Workshop” collects a selection of the Dimensions and Challenges of Russian Liberalism conference proceedings, providing a broad set of insights into the Russian liberal experience through a dialogue between past and present, and intellectual and empirical contextualization, involving historians, jurists, political scientists and theorists.

The first part focuses on the Imperial period, analyzing the political philosophy and peculiarities of pre-revolutionary Russian liberalism, its relations with the rule of law (Pravovoe Gosudarstvo), and its institutionalization within the Constitutional Democratic Party (Kadets). The second part focuses on Soviet times, when liberal undercurrents emerged under the surface of the official Marxist-Leninist ideology. After Stalin’s death, the “thaw intelligentsia” of Soviet dissidents and human rights defenders represented a new liberal dimension in late Soviet history, while the reforms of Gorbachev’s “New Thinking” became a substitute for liberalism in the final decade of the USSR.  The third part focuses on the “time of troubles” under the Yeltsin presidency, and assesses the impact of liberal values and ethics, the bureaucratic difficulties in adapting to change, and the paradoxes of liberal reforms during the transition to post-Soviet Russia. Despite Russian liberals having begun to draw lessons from previous failures, their project was severely challenged by the rise of Vladimir Putin. Hence, the fourth part focuses on the 2000s, when the liberal alternative in Russian politics confronted the ascendance of Putin, surviving in parts of Russian culture and in the mindset of technocrats and “system liberals”. Today, however, the Russian liberal project faces the limits of reform cycles of public administration, suffers from a lack of federalist attitude in politics and is externally challenged from an illiberal world order. All this asks us to consider: what is the likelihood of a “reboot” of Russian liberalism?

The subject of this chapter is the ethical and sociological aspects of events during perestroika and after. At that time, Russia reached the zenith of liberal ethical values, of romantic hopes and expectations and public demands for justice and the accountability of public authorities. Unfortunately, substantial underestimation of the importance of non-economic factors—especially moral ones—in the reform process resulted in a moral crisis, general disappointment in liberalism and other substantive negative consequences. Acquisition of intellectual and political liberties coincided with a catastrophic economic crisis and the imposition of urgent and necessary measures that were very hard on the population. These measures saved the country from economic collapse but for high political cost, because they were associated (wrongly, as it happens) in mass consciousness with the liberal concept as such. The borders of tolerance toward material impoverishment for the benefit of political freedom were crossed. Also, the paradox of double, contradictory treatment of liberalism in both Soviet intellectual and bureaucratic circles is analyzed in this context. The continuity of former Soviet administrative personnel engendered moral anomy, an identity crisis and alienation among them because inherited officials proved to be unprepared both morally and professionally for work under conditions of transition from socialism to a marketoriented system. This promoted the growth of systemic corruption. The public trust toward the state and public officials have been broken. Moreover, public trust in democratic institutions in general and even a very belief in the possibility of honest government have been undermined then. Despite this, we can find in the contemporary situation a certain ground for optimism. This is based on the revival of demands for social justice and unwillingness to tolerate its absence any longer. Public political protest is considered in this context as a natural and positive element of social activity and political participation, and as a pre-condition for the existence of civil society. In addition, the revival of liberal values in such a form, intuitively sometimes, such as the evolution of horizontal connections and parallel structures in different areas of social life, efforts of people to become maximally independent from state bureaucracy, is the subject of final pages of the chapter.

This chapter provides a preliminary analysis and explanations for the topics and problems that are explored in the book. In particular, the complexities and contradictions in the use of the concepts of Islamism, radical Islamism, and moderate Islamism are shown. One of the ideas that we argue is that, under certain conditions (in particular, a strong political order and participation of Islamists in elections), moderate groups begin to prevail, whereas with the banning of Islamist organizations and the persecution of them radical ones do. Such ambivalence of Islamism is not always taken into account, which sometimes leads to serious political consequences. One of the most acute issues is whether Islam is compatible with democracy? Probably, to a certain extent, it is. On the other hand, since the Islamists enjoy broad popularity among the Muslim populations, the democratic procedures are generally profitable for them. That is why it is impossible and dangerous to try to completely separate democratic and Muslim values, but it is necessary to search for a certain balance between them. In this introductory chapter, we also introduce a series of issues that are analyzed in the chapters of this monograph such as the Arab Spring and opportunities for democracy in Muslim countries; Islamism and Values; the Middle East, revolutions, World System, and Geopolitics; Islamic Radicalism and Terrorism. The Arab Spring is one of the main issues of this introductory chapter and this monograph. These events revealed the forces and problems which turned the renovation expectations of the spring into the gloomy reality of winter. Thus, answering the question in the headline of the present chapter, we can say: revolutions have only exacerbated the Arab countries’ problems. Unfortunately, over the seven years none of the Arab revolutions has solved any serious problem (and probably, will ever be able to). But, of course, in the sense of historical experience, with regard to the possibilities of searching for new forms of organizing society, these revolutions were of great importance for the region. However, the price of such experience is too high.

Настоящее исследование содержит подробный анализ моделей общественного мнения мусульман, в частности среди арабского населения (региона Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки – БВСА). Используя международные базы данных World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, авторы сравнивают модели общественного мнения жителей региона БВСА и жителей других стран мира, и строят научные прогнозы об изменении ценностных ориентаций в исследуемом регионе в целом.  Используя факторные индексы стран на основе различных опросов, авторы также приводят сводные индексы по уровню поддержки демократии и либерального общества на глобальном уровне в целом, и в мусульманском мире в частности. Они анализируют многовариантную модель структуры общественного мнения в арабском мире на основе более 40 переменных для респондентов из 12 стран-членов Лиги арабских государств (ЛАГ), что охватывает 67% всего населения арабских стран.  В одной из глав книги предлагается анализ социально-политической ситуации в арабских странах накануне событий Арабской весны, а также влияние этих событий на соседние регионы и другие страны мира в целом. В арабских революциях важную роль играли новые информационные технологии, а революционные настроения подпитывались распространением радикальных идей в обществе. Немаловажную роль сыграли такие факторы, как быстрая урбанизация, увеличение доли молодых людей в общей численности населения стран и тд. Монография содержит оптимистичные прогнозы относительно общей, долгосрочной тенденции к демократии и сопротивляемости арабского и мусульманского гражданского общества росту исламизма. Тем не менее особо подчеркивается рост антисемитских взглядов в регионе, что становится предметом обсуждения в данной книге в более широком контексте –  явления ксенофобии в традиционных обществах. 

We derive tight non-asymptotic bounds for the Kolmogorov distance between the probabilities of two Gaussian elements to hit a ball in a Hilbert space. The key property of these bounds is that they are dimension-free and depend on the nuclear (Schatten-one) norm of the difference between the covariance operators of the elements and on the norm of the mean shift. The obtained bounds significantly improve the bound based on Pinsker's inequality via the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We also establish an anti-concentration bound for a squared norm of a non-centered Gaussian element in Hilbert space. The paper presents a number of examples motivating our results and applications of the obtained bounds to statistical inference and to high-dimensional CLT.