Публикации

Using mathematical modeling, we consider the phenomenon of singularity in the biological and social history. It is shown that hyperbolic trends in biological and social evolution can be explained by transitional processes that accompany the expansion of ecological niches due to periodically occurring revolutionary innovations. During these periods, strong positive feedbacks are actualized, leading to hyperbolic growth. However, this growth is then inhibited, and the system goes into a new qualitative state. Then, there is a relatively slow development of the updated system with a gradual accumulation of quantitative characteristics and a new innovative breakthrough. This cycle then repeats multiple times. In this regard, the system’s hyperbolic growth trends indicate the transitivity of its current state, while the time of singularity in this hyperbolic trend indicates the end of the transition process.

The authors quantitatively analyse the long-term dynamics of technological progress from 40,000 BCE and offer projections through the 22nd century. We provide one method to measure technological progress over that time period, using a simple hyperbolic equation, yt = C/(t0 – t), as our model. We define yt as the technological growth rate, measured as number of technological phase transitions per unit of time. Our method measures the worldwide technology dynamic growth with an accuracy of R2 = 0.99. We find the singularity date occurs in the early 21st century and expect a new powerful acceleration of technological development after the 2030s followed by a slow-down in the late 21st and early 22nd centuries. The authors discuss the role of global ageing as one of the main factors in both the technological acceleration and the subsequent deceleration.

This article investigates the role of boards in founder-managed firms with concentrated ownership in emerging markets. The literature frequently suggests that in this type of companies, boards have little influence on the corporate decision making. The article conducts a case study of AFK Sistema—a large Russian founder-managed firm with concentrated ownership. We observe that, contrary to the expectations, in this company, the founder provided real authority to the board, at the same time focusing on recruiting independent (mainly foreign) members. Based on this case, we argue that selectively empowering boards in this type of ownership setting could be beneficial for the firm: Selective empowerment is a source of intrinsic motivationfor the independent board members, making them proactively search for new projects and assist in their implementation on behalf of the firm. As a result, the company can overcome a number of important barriers in its development.

This book, including thirteen chapters, treats different aspects of epistolary genre in the history of sociology. Correspondence of sociologists contains a valuable material on the life and work of sociologists, on revealing of their intellectual exchange networks, on the assessment of theories influence, on the analysis of their elaboration, on the understanding of their social, intellectual and political context. In this book are considered the general issues of epistolary genre in the history of sociology, as well as the particular correspondence themes of some of its representatives. This is about letters of classics, well-known sociologists (like Marx, Durkheim, Bouglé, George Gurvitch, Michel Crozier, Robert Merton), as well as less known social scientists, whose epistolary heritage has a great importance.

В статье рассматриваются вопросы прогнозирования микроклимата городов и ветроэнергетического потенциала жилых зданий применительно к России, Северной и Восточной Европе. В исследовании проанализирована климатическая структура крупного города, биоклиматический комфорт, а также представлен климатический анализ на примере Москвы. Уточнена взаимосвязь ветрового режима с климатическими и градостроительными факторами. Представлены возможные подходы к оценке ветроэнергетического потенциала здания. Проанализирован зарубежный опыт и классификация факторов, влияющих на размещение ветроэнергетических установок. Отмечена возможность детализации данных микроклимата по ветровому режиму для размещения ветроэлектростанций с учетом благоустройства и озеленения городов. Рассмотрен вопрос первичной привязки ветроэнергетических установок в строительстве на основе ветроэнергетического потенциала зданий и территорий. Концепция "Умного города" рассматривается с целью формирования системы управления ветроэнергетическим потенциалом в городском строительстве и оценки комфортности аэрации для пешеходов с интеграцией в градостроительное энергетическое моделирование (УБЭМ).