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Using mathematical modeling, we consider the phenomenon of singularity in the biological and social history. It is shown that hyperbolic trends in biological and social evolution can be explained by transitional processes that accompany the expansion of ecological niches due to periodically occurring revolutionary innovations. During these periods, strong positive feedbacks are actualized, leading to hyperbolic growth. However, this growth is then inhibited, and the system goes into a new qualitative state. Then, there is a relatively slow development of the updated system with a gradual accumulation of quantitative characteristics and a new innovative breakthrough. This cycle then repeats multiple times. In this regard, the system’s hyperbolic growth trends indicate the transitivity of its current state, while the time of singularity in this hyperbolic trend indicates the end of the transition process.
Purpose: The purpose of the article is to determine the scenarios innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and to develop a competitive model of this development. Methodology: The authors use the method of qualitative scenario analysis for determining the scenarios of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU and the method of modeling of socio-economic processes and systems and the method of formalization (graphic presentation of the results of modeling) for creating a competitive model of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU. Results: Three scenarios of innovational development of the modern Russia’s AIC are determined–technical modernization, ecologization, and transition to AIC 4.0–each of which envisages narrow specialization and cannot guarantee high competitiveness of the studied complex. For receiving the highest advantages from innovational development of the modern Russia’s AIC, it is offered to combine all three scenarios that have to determine the directions of this development. Due to this, the manufactured food products will be diversified and, therefore, will be less dependent on the change of consumer preferences in separate segments of the market and fluctuations of the world prices for food. This will ensure high global competitiveness of development of the Russian AIC, as the platform of the EAEU will provide export to the participants of this integration union and to the world markets. Recommendations: A competitive model of innovational development of the Russian AIC in the conditions of the EAEU is developed and recommended for practical application. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.
This book constitutes the proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Analysis of Images, Social Networks and Texts, AIST 2019, held in Kazan, Russia, in July 2019.
The 24 full papers and 10 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 134 submissions (of which 21 papers were rejected without being reviewed). The papers are organized in topical sections on general topics of data analysis; natural language processing; social network analysis; analysis of images and video; optimization problems on graphs and network structures; analysis of dynamic behaviour through event data.
Beginning with the historic racial desegregation in the United States, and spreading to other parts of the world, policy makers, guided by the findings of social scientists (e.g., Allport, 1954), have advocated for increased intergroup contact (e.g., in schools and neighborhoods) as the key to prejudice reduction and increased social cohesion. Recent work on the ‘irony of harmony’ effect ( Saguy, Tausch, Dovidio, & Pratto, 2009), however, suggests that intergroup contact can undermine disadvantaged group’s support for social change toward greater equality (e.g., Çakal, Hewstone, Schwär, & Heath, 2011; Dixon, Durrheim, & Tredoux, 2007). Using a large and heterogeneous dataset (N = 12,997 individuals from 69 countries), we demonstrate that intergroup contact and support for social change toward greater equality are positively associated among members of advantaged groups (ethnic majorities and cis-heterosexuals), but negatively associated among disadvantaged groups (ethnic minorities and sexual and gender minorities), supporting the ‘irony of harmony’ effect. Specification curve analysis revealed important variation in the size—and at times, direction—of correlations, depending on how contact and support for social change were measured. This allowed us to identify one type of support for change, willingness to work in solidarity for social change, that is positively associated with intergroup contact among both advantaged- and disadvantaged-group members.
The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.
Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.
For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.
The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
What characteristics of firms give them the confidence to invest in settings rife with expropriation by local officials? Empirically, firms in the developing world often face the threat of expropriation from local agents of the state rather than a centralized autocrat. Because policing local officials is costly, the state cannot easily credibly commit to doing so. This has negative consequences for investment. We argue that one solution is to allow firms to approach the state directly to ask for intervention. Not all firms are equally able to successfully get the attention of the state, however, so this mechanism only works for some. We develop an argument about the firm-level characteristics – large-scale employment, political connections, foreign ownership, and business association membership – that should make the central state more attentive to calls for help. Because firm with these characteristics are more likely to secure intervention against predatory bureaucrats, the latter are less likely to try to expropriate them. These firms’ investment decisions should be less sensitive to local expropriation than other firms. We test this argument using data on cases of decentralized expropriation across Russia’s regions and firm-level data from a cross-regional, large scale survey of Russian firms.
This book, including thirteen chapters, treats different aspects of epistolary genre in the history of sociology. Correspondence of sociologists contains a valuable material on the life and work of sociologists, on revealing of their intellectual exchange networks, on the assessment of theories influence, on the analysis of their elaboration, on the understanding of their social, intellectual and political context. In this book are considered the general issues of epistolary genre in the history of sociology, as well as the particular correspondence themes of some of its representatives. This is about letters of classics, well-known sociologists (like Marx, Durkheim, Bouglé, George Gurvitch, Michel Crozier, Robert Merton), as well as less known social scientists, whose epistolary heritage has a great importance.
В статье рассматриваются вопросы прогнозирования микроклимата городов и ветроэнергетического потенциала жилых зданий применительно к России, Северной и Восточной Европе. В исследовании проанализирована климатическая структура крупного города, биоклиматический комфорт, а также представлен климатический анализ на примере Москвы. Уточнена взаимосвязь ветрового режима с климатическими и градостроительными факторами. Представлены возможные подходы к оценке ветроэнергетического потенциала здания. Проанализирован зарубежный опыт и классификация факторов, влияющих на размещение ветроэнергетических установок. Отмечена возможность детализации данных микроклимата по ветровому режиму для размещения ветроэлектростанций с учетом благоустройства и озеленения городов. Рассмотрен вопрос первичной привязки ветроэнергетических установок в строительстве на основе ветроэнергетического потенциала зданий и территорий. Концепция "Умного города" рассматривается с целью формирования системы управления ветроэнергетическим потенциалом в городском строительстве и оценки комфортности аэрации для пешеходов с интеграцией в градостроительное энергетическое моделирование (УБЭМ).
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is not as new a phenomenon for Russia as it is considered to be. Despite the prevalence of CSR among Russian corporations and considerable budgets, the number of corporate foundations is limited to a few tens. This chapter develops explanations for a narrow prevalence of corporate foundations as a tool of CSR. The chapter is based on the available statistical information, corporate social reports and interviews with representatives of the corporate foundations. Three aspects are examined. The first is a statistical portrait of the subsector of corporate foundations: its size, funding models, payouts, projects being funded, etc. The second point is an institutional context: the current legislation on foundations and CSR, and the tax regulations. The third aspect to be covered is a hybrid role of corporate foundations, their operation in the social policy and the non-profit sector. The chapter concludes with a discussion on comparative advantages and weaknesses of corporate foundations in an emerging Russian market.
In this paper we provide the methodology for evaluating ef- fectiveness of international sanctions using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which we use for generating the network matrix for further anal- ysis. DEA is a non-parametric technique used to compare performance of similar units, such as departments or organizations. DEA has wide applications in all industries, and has been successfully used to compare performance of hospitals, banks, universities, etc. The most important advantage of this technique is that it can handle multiple input and out- put variables, even those not generally comparable to each other. We use the ”Threat and Imposition of Sanctions (TIES)” Data 4.0 for analysis. This database contains the largest number of cases of international sanctions (1412 from the years 1945-2005) imposed by some countries on others, takes into account simultaneous sanction imposition, and also estimates the cost of all sanctions - both for those who receive and those who impose them. As input variables for DEA model we use the impact of sender commitment, anticipated target and sender economic costs, and actual target and sender economic costs. As the output variable, we use the outcome of sanctions for senders. We describe how to use DEA cross-efficiency outputs to build the network of sanction episodes. Our proposed combination of DEA and network methodology allows us to cluster sanction episodes depending on their outcomes, and provides explanations of higher efficiency of one group of sanction episodes over the others.
In this chapter, we consider the process of technological progress presenting one of the options for measuring its speed throughout the entire historical process. We find that the general dynamics of accelerating technological growth over the past 40 thousand years can be described with amazing accuracy (R2 = 0.99) using the following simplest hyperbolic equation: yt = C/t0 − t, where yt is the technological growth rate measured as a number of technological phase transitions per unit of time. Although since 40,000 BP the speed of technological progress tended to generally increase, however, according to the theory of production principles on which we rely, the acceleration of technological progress had noticeable fluctuations. These fluctuations can be explained by the fact that technological development proceeded within the framework of super-long cycles. We show that, within these cycles, the phases of accumulation of basic breakthrough innovations are replaced by phases of rapid growth of improvements in basic innovations and their wide distribution. These fluctuations between cycle phases affect the pattern of acceleration of technological progress. Currently, there are a number of calculations of the point of singularity of the Big History and global evolution, which generally localize the singularity around the first half of the twenty-first century. The point of singularity in our calculations, if we rely only on historical time points, falls on 2018, that is, in principle, it fully fits the results of other studies. There is a fairly reasonable idea of slowing down a number of important social processes (such as demographic development, urbanization), including the speed of technological progress. Indeed, there are already some grounds for talking about signs of a slowdown in progress from the 1960 to 1970s. However, according to the theory of production principles, as already mentioned, there are strong fluctuations in the acceleration of technological progress. We assume that at the moment technological progress is in the fourth—the scientific and cybernetic—production principle. According to this theory, we expect a powerful acceleration of technological progress in the area between the 2030s and the 2070s. In this case, if we take into account the expected time points, the point of singularity, according to our calculations, is estimated to be around 2106. That is, with this method of calculation, we should first expect a new way of acceleration of technological progress, and then, its slowdown in the region of the end of the twenty-first century—the beginning of the 22nd. We also identify the social mechanism for such acceleration and deceleration: in the coming decades, the process of global ageing can cause technological acceleration first and change its direction, and then closer to the end of the present and the beginning of the next century, on the contrary, elderly society can be a brake on scientific-technological progress.
The paper introduces the concept of energy periphery to interrogate place-based perspectives on the co-production of uneven geographical development, energy vulnerabilities and low carbon transitions. Energy periphery is defined as places that are systematically disadvantaged through the whole energy system due to their inferior position within the asymmetrical spatial distribution of material, economic, political and symbolic resources and capabilities. Within an energy periphery, energy-related factors are combined with other place-based conditions to subject their communities to a compound and circular effect of precarious energy experiences. The notion of energy periphery is underpinned by insights from the spatial justice, core-periphery and energy justice theories. Using the case of Wales, the paper demonstrates the multi-dimensional and multi-scalar character of energy peripheralization, including political underrepresentation, the absence of economic agglomeration advantages, and dependence on off-grid fuels, energy inefficient homes and other ‘backward’ technologies and practices. Social and spatial contingencies of end-use energy vulnerability factors are outlined. Contrary to common discourses, energy transition further disadvantages energy peripheries and reproduces a fragmented socio-spatial landscape. The study overall demonstrates the importance of considering energo-socio-spatial relationships to better understand uneven energy transitions and social change more generally.
In this paragraph, the authors focus on analysing all the factors related to the accumulation of human potential and the integration of new knowledge in rural communities on Altai Krai’s Kulunda steppe that are largely responsible for the sustainable socio-economic development of this area. The analysis leads them to conclude that the understanding of the term ‘sustainable development’ in the directives of the krai and municipal administrations should be expanded in order to allow for the implementation of a number of measures. Those aimed at the socio-economic development of the region to ensure a specific quality of life for all generations in rural communities, both contemporary and future, that would involve the full realization of their human potential.
The purpose of the work is to determine the regularities and tendencies of globalization of education in the conditions of formation of the global knowledge economy, to compile forecasts of future development of this process, and to determine the conditions and factors of its acceleration and to develop recommendations for managing these factors. Methodology: The authors use theoretical (qualitative) methods of scientific research—systemic, problem, logical, and process analysis; and practical (quantitative) methods of scientific research—trend and regression analysis. Regression analysis is used for determining the dependence of the indicators of globalization of education on the indicators of formation of knowledge economy. As specialized indices of globalization of education are absent, and target statistical accounting of this process is not conducted, the research objects include universities from nine countries of the world, which show the highest global competitiveness according to the QS in 2018, and from Russia. Results: In the course of the research, the authors have not determined statistically significant influence of various indicators of knowledge economy (export of hi-tech, state expenditures for R&D and for education) on the indictors of globalization of education (global competitiveness of the leading national university, share of foreign lecturers and foreign students). This excludes mutual influence of knowledge economy and globalization of education and shows that this process is unidirectional—globalization of education stimulates the formation of the global knowledge economy. It is not possible to determine clear quantitative regularities due to statistical insignificance of the obtained regression models—however, the tendencies of globalization of education are found—reduction of the share of foreign lecturers and increase of the share of foreign students in 2016–2018, which reflect contradiction of this process and its slow rate. Recommendations: Framework recommendations are offered for managing the factors of globalization of education: development of remote education, adoption of international standards of education, issue of international diplomas, and increase of flexibility of the educational process.
The purpose of the article is to compare the models of state regulation of economic growth, connected to market optimization and counter-cyclical regulation, through the prism of their influence on population’s living standards and to determine the most optimal one according to the criterion of maximization of positive influence. Methodology: The authors use the method of regression analysis for determining the dependence of the life quality index in 2018 on the 2007 level, growth rate of GDP (model of market optimization), and depth of decline of GDP in the crisis period (2010) (model of counter-cyclical regulation). The research objects include 16 developed and developing countries that are peculiar for the highest living standards as of 2018–8 countries implement the model of market optimization and 8 countries implement the model of counter-cyclical regulation. Results: It is concluded that maximization of advantages for the global economy, connected to increase of population’s living standards, requires the model of counter-cyclical regulation, which envisages limitation of growth rate of economy in the period of its rise for leveling the following cyclical fluctuations–minimization of crisis in the period of decline. The alternative model of market optimization is undesired, as it hinders the achievement of global goals in the sphere of sustainable development, reducing population’s living standards. Recommendations: It is shown that practical implementation of global goals in the sphere of sustainable development envisages unification of the practice of national state regulation of economic growth for optimizing the growth of the modern global economy. The authors’ recommendations for this are offered.
The legacy of Russian psychologist Lev Semenovich Vygotsky is most closely associated with the cultural-historical paradigm and, in the West, has found its most extensive application in contemporary developmental and educational psychology. However, Vygotsky’s project was far more ambitious than this perspective implies—in fact, he conceived a new, original program of general psychology that could address human beings in their full measure, foregrounding the human potential for freedom and agency. The distinctive characteristic of Vygotsky’s approach was his profound interdisciplinarity and, specifically, his evolving dialogue with art practices and aesthetics, the scope of which has only become clear with the recent publication of previously unpublished archival material and his writings as an art and literary critic. This article has two aims: to outline a more inclusive and nuanced understanding of Vygotsky’s views on general psychology, on the basis of recent archival discoveries and publications, and attending to these materials closely, to explicate the role that Vygotsky allocated to art in his radical project of creating the “height psychology.”
This chapter discusses in some detail the possibility of the Singularity being a product of biased human perception described by the Weber–Fechner law. It is shown that though the Weber–Fechner effect can produce series with a hyperbolic shape, the hyperbolic acceleration pattern with the twenty-first century Singularity detected in Panov and Modis–Kurzweil series is explained first of all by the actual hyperbolic acceleration of the global megaevolution.
People’s attachment to the plant world makes a great contribution to the maintenance of psychological well-being. At the same time, little is known regarding the contribution of attitudes to plants to people’s morality; the current study is aimed at filling this gap. We assumed that the more positive the attitude to plants is, the higher the level of moral motives is. The survey was conducted on the Russian sample; 257 participants (students from Moscow universities, 199 female, Mage = 21.1, SDage = 2.5), were recruited. The following tools were used: a questionnaire People and Plants (PaP) consisting of five sub-scales (joy, esthetics, practice, closeness to nature, and ecology) and Moral Motives Model scale (MMM scale) including six sub-scales (self-restraint, not harming, social order, self-reliance (industriousness), helping/fairness, and social justice). It was found that all parameters of positive attitudes to plants, except practice, were strongly positively connected with moral motives. Multi-regression analysis allowed developing certain models demonstrating the contribution of attachment to the plant world to people's morality. The proscriptive motives (especially self-restraint) are more sensitive to attitudes to flora as compared to prescriptive motives; prescriptive motive self-reliance was not predicted by the attitude to flora at all. Moreover, the findings seem to be gender-sensitive (predictions are higher in females). The obtained results are discussed referring to the reverence for life ethics by Schweitzer, deep ecology by Næss, Biophilia hypothesis by Wilson, and psychology of moral expansiveness by Crimston et al.
Russia-China relations are a major focus of studies in international relations, yet few studies have thus far addressed perceptions of China among the Russian population, and perceptions of Russia among the Chinese population. This study seeks to contribute to closing this gap by focusing on country perceptions among college-age millennials. We focus on those who are involved in studies of Russia in the case of Chinese students, and studies of China in the case of Russian students; among them we have selected students who have had study abroad experience in the other country. Our findings are based on an analysis of 150 in-depth qualitative narrative interviews conducted with Chinese students and Russian students (75 with each group). We show that ethnocentric stereotypes prevail and each group engages in cultural ‘othering,’ that students from both countries perceive Russian President Vladimir Putin to be a central determining factor in shaping Russia-China relations.
People can store thousands of real-world objects in visual long-term memory with high precision. But are these objects stored as unitary, bound entities, as often assumed, or as bundles of separable features? We tested this in several experiments. In the first series of studies, participants were instructed to remember specific exemplars of real-world objects presented in a particular state (e.g., open/closed, full/empty, etc.), and then were asked to recognize either which exemplars they had seen (e.g., I saw this coffee mug), or which exemplar-state conjunctions they had seen (e.g., I saw this coffee mug and it was full). Participants had a large number of within-category confusions, for example misremembering which states went with which exemplars, while simultaneously showing strong memory for the features themselves (e.g., which states they had seen, which exemplars they had seen). In a second series of studies, we found further evidence of independence: participants were very good at remembering which exemplars they had seen independently of whether these items were presented in a new or old state, but the same did not occur for features known to be truly holistically represented. Thus, we find through 2 lines of evidence that the features of real-world objects that support exemplar discrimination and state discrimination are not bound, suggesting visual objects are not inherently unitary entities in memory.