Vadim Ustyuzhanin presented his research Illuminating the Impact of Resistance: Nonviolent Political Movements and Economic Activity at the 28th IPSA World Congress of Political Science in Seoul.
The study focuses on the economic consequences of nonviolent revolutionary campaigns around the world. The current era is characterized by various political bottom-up transformations. Some of these are successful and lead to regime changes, while others fail to achieve their goals. At the same time, scholars remain divided regarding the outcomes of such revolutionary campaigns. Their economic effects remain understudied: some authors argue that democratization (which may result from these campaigns) can lead to positive economic outcomes, while others claim that such campaigns cause economic damage.
This study addresses these critical gaps by focusing on establishing a causal relationship between campaigns and economic growth, as well as analyzing variations in growth depending on the type of campaign. The analysis covers the period from 1950 to 2022. The results show that all campaigns have a weak but significant short- and medium-term negative effect on economic growth. At the same time, the findings indicate that democratization resulting from a campaign does not lead to negative economic outcomes. In other words, campaigns that initiate a democratic transition effectively neutralize the long-term negative economic consequences of instability and the shock caused by revolutionary changes.
