Center of Fundamental Research’s project for 2022:
New Revolutionary Wave in the “Afro-Asiatic” Zone of Instability
The project aims to identify the key factors that determined the new wave of revolutions in the “Afro-Asiatic” macro zone of instability, taking into account the macro trends of global, regional and country development, as well as to understand why some countries that actively participated in the Arab Spring were not seriously affected by the new revolutionary wave.
In this regard, it is assumed that the following tasks will be solved:
- identification similarities and differences between the events of the Arab Spring and the current revolutionary wave in the “Afro-Asiatic" macro zone of instability;
- clarification of the general factors of the genesis of revolutionary situations in the modern world;
- studying the causes of the new wave of revolutions and its world-system context;
- analysis of the organizational forms of the new wave of revolutions;
- studying the driving forces and goals of the new revolutionary wave in the Afrazian macro zone of instability, as well as its results.
Russian Scientific Foundation’s Project:
1. Quantitative Analysis and Forecasting the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization in the Countries of “Afro-Asiatic” Zone of Instability.
The project is aimed at identifying the causes, trends and patterns of the dynamics of socio-political destabilization of social systems in the countries of this macro zone, taking into account a specific hybrid form of socio-political modernization that does not fully correspond to its classical understanding, and using them to predict the risks of socio-political destabilization in the social systems of this macro zone. The relevance of this problem is due to the fact that the definition of real factors of destabilization is the basis for subsequent forecasting of socio-political dynamics in this extremely important part of the modern world. In turn, such forecasts will serve as a basis for forming an idea of strategic political risks and threats. At the same time, the world-systemic periphery, which includes the Afro-Asiatic macro zone of instability, has developed so rapidly in recent years that risk forecasting systems developed on the data of the last decades of the last century do not have time to adapt to the new reality – for example, none of them could predict the destabilization wave of Arab countries in 2010, which was called the Arab Spring. In regards to this, the development of new effective forecasting systems for socio-political destabilization is a particularly urgent task.
2. Analysis and Modeling of African Development in the Context of Russian Foreign Interests.
The main objective of the project is to study the foreign policy of the Russian Federation in the African region in at least two aspects: firstly, in terms of its effectiveness; secondly, in terms of the impact of the socio-political context of African development on it. In this regard, it is of interest to highlight the following problematic aspects of this study:
- Identification of elements of a new structure of relations and cooperation between Russia and the countries of the African region.
- Identification of Russia's priority foreign policy interests in Africa, as well as new forms and methods of Russia's response to the challenges of the constantly changing situation in the region.
- Study of the impact of political competition between global actors on Russian-African relations.
- The impact of the weakening of the centre of the World-System and the advent of new coalitions in the polycentric world, both in the “Afro-Asiatic” macroregion and at the global level.
- Analysis of the degree of influence of the Arab Spring and the global wave of socio-political destabilization in the “Afro-Asiatic zone of instability” on the relations of the countries in the region with the Russian Federation.
- Analysis of the influence of Islamization, liberalization and secularization in the region on the foreign policy of the Russian Federation (including the degree of influence of Islamist terrorism on the realization of Russian interests in Africa).
- Identification of the degree of influence of the socio-political context of the development of the African region on Russia's policy in it.
3. Islamist Extremism in the Context of International Security: Threats to Russia and Opportunities for Counteraction
The project is aimed at conducting a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms of adaptation and forms of reaction of Islamist extremism to the changing world order, at least in two aspects: firstly, from the point of view of the formation of its own statehood; secondly, from the point of view of “glocalization of terrorism”. In addition, the project provides an analysis of the policy of the Russian Federation in the “Afro-Asiatic” region in the context of the emergence of new threats to destabilize existing socio-political systems, the spread of terrorist activity on the territory of Russia and neighbouring countries, as well as the possibility of the emergence of the ideology of extremism in the political discourse of certain Islamist groups in Russia.
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