Socio-Economic Development and Protests: A Quantitative Reanalysis

Постоянный семинар лаборатории

Докладчик: Патрик Скотт Сойер, стажер-исследователь НУЛ мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации (НИУ ВШЭ). Выступление: «Socio-Economic Development and Protests: A Quantitative Reanalysis».

Дискуссанты: А.В. Коротаев (НИУ ВШЭ), С.Ю. Малков (МГУ), К.В. Мещерина (НИУ ВШЭ), Е.А. Иванов (НИУ ВШЭ), А.Р. Шишкина (НИУ ВШЭ), И.А. Медведев (РАНХиГС), Д.М. Романов (НИУ ВШЭ), С.Г. Шульгин (РАНХиГС), А.С. Ходунов (РГГУ), И.И. Алаева (НИУ ВШЭ). 

The current paper investigates societal indicators associated with economic development that may account for the strong positive correlation between GDP per capita and protest intensity. Our tests reveal that the expansion of democratization, education, and urbanization are one of the main influences accounting for this positive relationship between GDP per capita growth and anti-government protest intensity. Moreover, when controlling for these factors, the relationship between GDP per capita and anti-state protests becomes negative indicating that the forces associated with economic development at a certain point play a larger role than economic growth itself. The results of this study, thus, have implications for both Resource Mobilization and Cultural Theorists due to the fact that further GDP per capita growth becomes an inhibitor of protests in the high-income countries instead of a promoter.

Socio-Economic Development and Protests (PDF, 427 Кб)