Выступление в Отделе народонаселения ООН

20 февраля 2013 г. заведующий лабораторией А.В. Коротаев и научный сотрудник лаборатории Ю.В. Зинькина сделали доклад "Social-Demographic Risks of Humanitarian Disasters in Tropical Africa and Means of their Prevention" на семинаре Отдела народонаселения Организации Объединенных Наций  (г. Нью-Йорк, США). В работе семинара приняла участие научный сотрудник лаборатории А.Р. Шишкина.

Abstract: Fertility decline has stalled in numerous Sub-Saharan countries since the late 1990s and early 2000s, while mortality decline has continued and recently sharply accelerated; the resulting youth surge, hyper-urbanization, and anticipated population increases are bringing very high risks of socio-political collapse and humanitarian catastrophe in this region. If current demographic trends persist the population of, say, Nigeria may well exceed, by the end of this century, five times the population of Russia, a level that is fraught with risks of social and political collapse. As many sub-Saharan countries are on a similar trajectory to achieve new orders of magnitude in population, such collapses, if not averted by drastic policy changes, may attain a truly global scale, with death tolls as large as tens or even hundreds of millions. However, these risks are avoidable. The most important preventive measure is INTRODUCING GENERAL COMPULSORY SECONDARY EDUCATION as soon as possible. This will help to decrease the demographic burden through two ways, namely accelerating the fertility decline, and increasing economic growth rates. Undoubtedly, introducing compulsory secondary education is a very expensive measure, and most of the sub-Saharan countries at risk will be unable to manage it on their own. Thus, it is utterly necessary for the international community to provide support to Sub-Saharan countries in this respect, and to ensure the funds are properly spent. This implies a substantial increase in financial aid destined for these goals, and expansion of country agreements with the World Bank to fight corruption. If this support is not provided promptly, much greater expenses will invariably be required later on to deal with sociopolitical catastrophes in the sub-Saharan countries. 

Biography. Born in Moscow, Andrey Korotayev attended Moscow State University, where he received a B.A. degree in 1984 and an M.A. in 1989. He earned a Ph.D. in 1993 from Manchester University, and in 1998 a Doctor of Sciences degree from the Russian Academy of Sciences. Since 2000, he has been Professor and Director of the Anthropology of the East Center at the Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow, and Senior Research Professor in the Oriental Institute and Institute for African Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. In 2003-2004, he was a visiting member at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, NJ. He is co-editor of the journals Social Evolution & History and Journal of Globalization Studies, as well as History & Mathematics almanac. Together with Askar Akayev and George Malinetsky he is a coordinator of the Russian Academy of Sciences Program "System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of World Dynamics". Korotayev has written over 27 books and 210 articles. Korotayev is a laureate of the Russian Science Support Foundation in "The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences" nomination (2006). In 2012 he was awarded with the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation. 

Venue: New York, Conference Room DC2-23^rd floor, Two United Nations Plaza, 44th St. near First Ave. 

Contact person: Patrick Gerland at gerland@un.org or +1 (917) 367-7053 

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