Онлайн-семинар "Использование данных о величине поисковых запросов для прогнозирования протестной мобилизации: кейс США"

Докладчик: Dr. Jais Adam-Troian, преподаватель департамента психологии Килского университета

Аннотация: Protest mobilization is a key driver of social and political change within societies. Yet, the study of the psychosocial drivers of protest mobilization remains limited by methodological constraints, favoring a quasi-exclusive use of archival and/or survey data. In this talk we will present a novel methodological approach relying on Search Volume Data (i.e. Google Trends indices) to study the dynamics of  protest mobilization with regards to its social psychological determinants. In social identity perspective, the main factor mobilizing  individuals into collective action remains the extent to which they feel identified with a protesting group (i.e., social identification).  Although the link between social identification and collective action is well-established, current evidence relies mostly on self-report data.  We will show how we combined real-life protest counts in the US (2017-2020) with online search data (Google Trends) for pronouns indicating a 'group' mindset (first-person plural pronouns; e.g. 'we', 'us'). We will also present a step-by-step method for robust causal estimation drawing upon time series, multiverse and mixed model analyses which allowed us to predict both protest and protester counts over time. Finally, we will briefly discuss in what ways this method matters for the ecological study and quantification of protest mobilization dynamics.

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Код доступа: 244965

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